就业吸纳能力的税收敏感性研究——兼论我国的就业乘数

李明

<p><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold">财政是</span><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">国家治理的基础和重要支柱，就业是民生之本、财富之源，各国都高度重视财税政策在稳定和扩大就业中的作用。但由于政策效果有赖市场主体的反应，所以绩效评价是推出和调整政策不可少的环节。以减税为例，研究关注两个问题：一是政策是否有助于增强就业，旨在探究政策效果的统计显著性，二是创造就业岗位的财政成本有多高，旨在揭示政策的经济显著性。近来我，我国经济下行压力加大，稳就业受到广泛关注。文章基于</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.5pt; font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体">2008</span><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">年企业所得税工资薪金转向据实扣除的政策冲击，利用</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.5pt; font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体">2006</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.5pt; font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体">-</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.5pt; font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体">2012</span><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.5pt; font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体">A</span><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">股上市公司数据，研究了企业就业吸纳能力对税收的敏感性。发现就业导向的减税显著提升了企业的雇佣规模，结论契合理论模型预测，并通过了多重稳健性检验。进一步分析发现，就业增长并未对企业投资、研发和资金来源产生挤出效应。基于研究结果的核算表明，我国每创造一个新工作岗位的财政成本约为</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.5pt; font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体">1.8</span><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">万</span><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">元（</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.5pt; font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体">2018</span><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">年价格），低于发达国家和我国工资水平。本文研究为通过就业导向的减税推动经济增长和就业增加良性循环提供了理论支撑。</span></p>

2019-11-28(Thursday)16:40-18:10

经济楼D-235

中文

经济学院财政系

经济学院财政系

独立讲座

谢贞发

<div style="text-indent: 21pt"><span>李明，</span>2012<span>年毕业于复旦大学经济学院，现为对外经济贸易大学财政税务学系教授、国际经贸学院院长助理。近</span> 5 <span>年，以第一作者身份在《经济研究》（</span>3<span>篇）《管理世界》（</span>3<span>篇）《世界经济》（</span>1<span>篇）累计发表论文</span> 7 <span>篇，在</span><i> Applied Economics</i><i><span>、</span></i><i>Contemporary Economic Policy</i><i><span>、</span></i><i>Emerging Markets Finance and Trade</i><span>等英文</span>SSCI<span>期刊合作录用发表论文</span>3<span>篇，在《经济学</span>(<span>季刊</span>)<span>》《管理科学学报》等期刊合作或独立发表论文</span><span>多</span><span>篇，获商务部商务发展研究成果优秀论文奖、洪银兴经济学奖等科研荣誉，主持省部级以上科研项目</span> <span>3</span><span>项，担任国家社科基金重大项目子课题负责人。部分成果转化后为中宣部《成果要报》及教育部《教育部简报》采纳，供中央领导同志和有关部门决策参阅<span style="color: black">。</span></span></div>

财税青年学者论坛第五十六讲