题 目：On the Intertemporal Sustainability of Fiscal Debt in China
报 告 人：Ying Wu, Ph.D.
Associate Professor
Department of Economics and Finance
Franklin P. Perdue School of Business
Salisbury University, U. S.
摘 要：This paper analyzes the fiscal sustainability of China’s government debt with the 1979-2001 budgetary data. Applying the present value budget constraint and performing a cointegration analysis for public expenditures and tax revenues, the author finds that the government expenditures (inclusive of interest) and tax revenues in China are cointegrated and the cointegration vector found is significantly close to the theoretical value for fiscal sustainability. Furthermore, it is the tax revenue rather than government expenditure in China that plays the key role in sustaining fiscal debt in the sense of the present value budget constraint. The difference analysis also shows that high GDP growth relative to the interest rate favors the sustainability of China’s government debt over the long run in spite of recent growing budget deficits and deflation.
时 间：2007年6月21日（星期四）7:00pm-9:00pm
地 点：经济学院D309室
主办单位：厦门大学宏观经济研究中心
厦门大学经济学院
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